Let's play the allocation game

[Throat Yogurt]

It is a game, right? Except much like chutes and ladders, roulette, and the crypto market, it is a game of chance...not a game of skill. Or is it?

The goal is clear: allowing me the privilege of giving Cadillac ~$70k of my hard-earned money. In return, they give me a CT4-V Blackwing configured exactly the way I want it. You might think this would not be so difficult, but it is. The reason it is difficult is because Cadillac has implemented an order system that does not even remotely benefit the buyer, nor work in his/her favor. Allocations are handed out to dealerships based on previous cars sold, not based on how many current orders have been received, which really makes no sense whatsoever. What if we distributed medicine, or clothing, or goat food in that way? Here, you get 5 pairs of pants because you bought 5 pairs of pants last year. What's that? You only need 2 pairs of pants and your neighbor needs 3 pairs? Too bad. Ok, I am getting sidetracked.

Because this is a game of chance, I am making two plays in an attempt to maximise my chance of getting an allocation. First, I placed an order with a small dealership that has only received one 4BW allocation, and that was a while ago. This order has been sitting at 1100 since January. Next, I recently placed a second order with a larger dealership that has received five 4BW allocations, on average one every two months since July 2021. They even have a few 4BWs sitting in the showroom, though they are not the configuration I want.

Here is the game- which dealership will get me an allocation first? Will either one come through before the end of the 2022MY? How many more sarcastic/frustrated posts will I make in the meantime? Will GM come to their senses and start fulfilling orders sequentially? Stay tuned!

 

[MatthewAMEL]

I'm playing the odds also...three orders in.

One at a high-volume dealer, one mid, and one low.

To make matters worse, using prior units as a metric when the supply chain and car sales in general have been completely borked due to a global pandemic is a special kind of stupid. Why is FIFO so hard for GM?

 

[1Evil55]

Bitcoin is currently less volatile.

 

[sublime1996525]

I went to place an order yesterday at the dealer in Salt Lake. They said I should expect to wait 15 months....not sure I want the car that bad and now knowing they'll be making a 2023 model year, I'll wait.

 

[Throat Yogurt]

I went to place an order yesterday at the dealer in Salt Lake. They said I should expect to wait 15 months....not sure I want the car that bad and now knowing they'll be making a 2023 model year, I'll wait.

For a 4 or 5?

 

[jnart]

It is a game, right? Except much like chutes and ladders, roulette, and the crypto market, it is a game of chance...not a game of skill. Or is it?

The goal is clear: allowing me the privilege of giving Cadillac ~$70k of my hard-earned money. In return, they give me a CT4-V Blackwing configured exactly the way I want it. You might think this would not be so difficult, but it is. The reason it is difficult is because Cadillac has implemented an order system that does not even remotely benefit the buyer, nor work in his/her favor. Allocations are handed out to dealerships based on previous cars sold, not based on how many current orders have been received, which really makes no sense whatsoever. What if we distributed medicine, or clothing, or goat food in that way? Here, you get 5 pairs of pants because you bought 5 pairs of pants last year. What's that? You only need 2 pairs of pants and your neighbor needs 3 pairs? Too bad. Ok, I am getting sidetracked.

Because this is a game of chance, I am making two plays in an attempt to maximise my chance of getting an allocation. First, I placed an order with a small dealership that has only received one 4BW allocation, and that was a while ago. This order has been sitting at 1100 since January. Next, I recently placed a second order with a larger dealership that has received five 4BW allocations, on average one every two months since July 2021. They even have a few 4BWs sitting in the showroom, though they are not the configuration I want.

Here is the game- which dealership will get me an allocation first? Will either one come through before the end of the 2022MY? How many more sarcastic/frustrated posts will I make in the meantime? Will GM come to their senses and start fulfilling orders sequentially? Stay tuned!

And the website makes it seem so easy. Just do your build online and contact your local dealership. I guess the goat rodeo part is in the small invisible print.

 

[ericwilliamstevenson]

I went to place an order yesterday at the dealer in Salt Lake. They said I should expect to wait 15 months....not sure I want the car that bad and now knowing they'll be making a 2023 model year, I'll wait

I ordered through Jerry Seiner in SLC.. The car came earlier this week and they failed to unload it from the transport truck!

 

[Exia]

I understand your frustrations but allocations exist for a reason.

The manufacturer (GM) can only make so many, they sell cars to dealers, not customers. The dealers take on the risk of the vehicle and trying to sell it. GM wants dealers to buy as many as possible but dealers if they had their way would only order cars they know will sell and nothing else and once those cars that sell well stop selling well, they don't want anymore but those same dealers all of a sudden want as many as they can get when the model is a hot ticket item again

GM is a business they want dealers to buy all kinds of cars not just full size trucks, SUVs and the current hot ticket performance car.

I'll give an example:

When the C7 Corvette released people once again wanted Corvette's. The C6 was getting old, sales had dwindled and dealers obviously don't want to order more C6's when they know they will have a hard time selling them. However the dealers that do are rewarded when a new model comes along, all of a sudden everyone wants a Corvette and the dealers that decided not to order a lot of C6s prior to the C7 now find that they can't get as many C7s as they'd like.

The same happened with the C8. I saw a small sealer who only sold less then 10 Corvette's a year sell 60 a year after only two years. Why? Because in the last two years of the C7 sales fell, dealers didn't want as many and GM had plenty available. This dealer ordered as many as they could and because other dealers stopped ordering as many they got a ton of Corvette's. Now GM rewards this dealer when the C8 comes around and says, well you bought and sold 60 C7s last year so here's 60 C8's, thanks for buying C7s when nobody wanted them.

This scenario is the same for every model of vehicle. The allocation system rewards dealers who take on the risk of continuing to buy models that are old and have bad sales because when the new one comes out all of a sudden they can't sell enough of them.

What sucks is most people have no idea how this system works and salesmen won't tell you this, so you go in to your local Caddy dealer and say I want to order a Blackwing and they say sure no problem, meanwhile they've never even received a CTS-V before, there's no chance they will get a Blackwing and they won't tell you as much (most of the time).

GM absolutely will fill orders if possible but if they only have 1500 allocations a year and 3000 people want one, they are going to distribute them according to historical sales of the dealers. Once the number of people who wants one drops below the amount of allocations for a given model year they will start to hand out those extra vehicles to dealers that have customers in the system for a sold order.

This is the fair and reasonable way to give allocations, at least while dealers still exist.

 

[SOP]

I understand your frustrations but allocations exist for a reason.

The manufacturer (GM) can only make so many, they sell cars to dealers, not customers. The dealers take on the risk of the vehicle and trying to sell it. GM wants dealers to buy as many as possible but dealers if they had their way would only order cars they know will sell and nothing else and once those cars that sell well stop selling well, they don't want anymore but those same dealers all of a sudden want as many as they can get when the model is a hot ticket item again

GM is a business they want dealers to buy all kinds of cars not just full size trucks, SUVs and the current hot ticket performance car.

I'll give an example:

When the C7 Corvette released people once again wanted Corvette's. The C6 was getting old, sales had dwindled and dealers obviously don't want to order more C6's when they know they will have a hard time selling them. However the dealers that do are rewarded when a new model comes along, all of a sudden everyone wants a Corvette and the dealers that decided not to order a lot of C6s prior to the C7 now find that they can't get as many C7s as they'd like.

The same happened with the C8. I saw a small sealer who only sold less then 10 Corvette's a year sell 60 a year after only two years. Why? Because in the last two years of the C7 sales fell, dealers didn't want as many and GM had plenty available. This dealer ordered as many as they could and because other dealers stopped ordering as many they got a ton of Corvette's. Now GM rewards this dealer when the C8 comes around and says, well you bought and sold 60 C7s last year so here's 60 C8's, thanks for buying C7s when nobody wanted them.

This scenario is the same for every model of vehicle. The allocation system rewards dealers who take on the risk of continuing to buy models that are old and have bad sales because when the new one comes out all of a sudden they can't sell enough of them.

What sucks is most people have no idea how this system works and salesmen won't tell you this, so you go in to your local Caddy dealer and say I want to order a Blackwing and they say sure no problem, meanwhile they've never even received a CTS-V before, there's no chance they will get a Blackwing and they won't tell you as much (most of the time).

GM absolutely will fill orders if possible but if they only have 1500 allocations a year and 3000 people want one, they are going to distribute them according to historical sales of the dealers. Once the number of people who wants one drops below the amount of allocations for a given model year they will start to hand out those extra vehicles to dealers that have customers in the system for a sold order.

This is the fair and reasonable way to give allocations, at least while dealers still exist.

I love information like this. Thanks for the interesting insight into the inner workings of the relationship between dealers and manufacturers.

 

[Daijoubu]

The way the "first 250" cars were sold is how it should always be done. Put your name on a list with the manufacturer, then choose your dealer when YOU get an allocation.

Anyway, I was looking at production numbers, and the CT5VBW is already at 881 units (not including pre-production and evaluation vehicles) since starting production in the second week of July. It averages out to 25 vehicles per week produced. The first year (highest production year) of the CTS-V3 had 1900 units produced which averages out to about 36 vehicles per week. We aren't really too far off that which I think is pretty impressive considering all the obstacles in the last year+.

And recently, from January to today, there have been production weeks of 42, 44, and 52 cars. Things aren't so bleak.

 

[Snowwolfe]

GM has been on a push to reduce the numbers of dealers. They will do it either by paying them off or squeezing them out by not giving them inventory to sell.
Somewhere along the line GM forgot dealers only exist if they have cars they can sell and service.
Furthermore, GM simply doesn’t give a shit about the people that want to buy their products and keep them in business. All of this is reflected in the value of their stock.
In fairness this seems to be the current thinking of all the auto companies. In 10 years you will visit the manufacturers web site, build your car, pay for it, and pick the place you want it delivered to. The “middleman” dealers will mostly disappear.
Tesla has already proven this concept works.

 

[shbox]

There's going to be fewer Caddy dealers soon, anyway. There are many of them that are not willing to put up the money required to go EV. It is a given that the process of buying a new car is going to change a lot in the near future.

 

[frankfast97]

The way the "first 250" cars were sold is how it should always be done. Put your name on a list with the manufacturer, then choose your dealer when YOU get an allocation.

Anyway, I was looking at production numbers, and the CT5VBW is already at 881 units (not including pre-production and evaluation vehicles) since starting production in the second week of July. It averages out to 25 vehicles per week produced. The first year (highest production year) of the CTS-V3 had 1900 units produced which averages out to about 36 vehicles per week. We aren't really too far off that which I think is pretty impressive considering all the obstacles in the last year+.

And recently, from January to today, there have been production weeks of 42, 44, and 52 cars. Things aren't so bleak.

Yes…but have they been built and just sitting? There maybe 150 5 blackwings in the lot of doom waiting on parts….. kind of like when delta backs away from the gate for a “on time departure”, only to sit on runway for 2 hours

 

[frankfast97]

GM has been on a push to reduce the numbers of dealers. They will do it either by paying them off or squeezing them out by not giving them inventory to sell.
Somewhere along the line GM forgot dealers only exist if they have cars they can sell and service.
Furthermore, GM simply doesn’t give a shit about the people that want to buy their products and keep them in business. All of this is reflected in the value of their stock.
In fairness this seems to be the current thinking of all the auto companies. In 10 years you will visit the manufacturers web site, build your car, pay for it, and pick the place you want it delivered to. The “middleman” dealers will mostly disappear.
Tesla has already proven this concept works.

This is my feeling about GM as well after joining this circus.

 

[RunR4Life65]

I understand your frustrations but allocations exist for a reason.

The manufacturer (GM) can only make so many, they sell cars to dealers, not customers. The dealers take on the risk of the vehicle and trying to sell it. GM wants dealers to buy as many as possible but dealers if they had their way would only order cars they know will sell and nothing else and once those cars that sell well stop selling well, they don't want anymore but those same dealers all of a sudden want as many as they can get when the model is a hot ticket item again

GM is a business they want dealers to buy all kinds of cars not just full size trucks, SUVs and the current hot ticket performance car.

I'll give an example:

When the C7 Corvette released people once again wanted Corvette's. The C6 was getting old, sales had dwindled and dealers obviously don't want to order more C6's when they know they will have a hard time selling them. However the dealers that do are rewarded when a new model comes along, all of a sudden everyone wants a Corvette and the dealers that decided not to order a lot of C6s prior to the C7 now find that they can't get as many C7s as they'd like.

The same happened with the C8. I saw a small sealer who only sold less then 10 Corvette's a year sell 60 a year after only two years. Why? Because in the last two years of the C7 sales fell, dealers didn't want as many and GM had plenty available. This dealer ordered as many as they could and because other dealers stopped ordering as many they got a ton of Corvette's. Now GM rewards this dealer when the C8 comes around and says, well you bought and sold 60 C7s last year so here's 60 C8's, thanks for buying C7s when nobody wanted them.

This scenario is the same for every model of vehicle. The allocation system rewards dealers who take on the risk of continuing to buy models that are old and have bad sales because when the new one comes out all of a sudden they can't sell enough of them.

What sucks is most people have no idea how this system works and salesmen won't tell you this, so you go in to your local Caddy dealer and say I want to order a Blackwing and they say sure no problem, meanwhile they've never even received a CTS-V before, there's no chance they will get a Blackwing and they won't tell you as much (most of the time).

GM absolutely will fill orders if possible but if they only have 1500 allocations a year and 3000 people want one, they are going to distribute them according to historical sales of the dealers. Once the number of people who wants one drops below the amount of allocations for a given model year they will start to hand out those extra vehicles to dealers that have customers in the system for a sold order.

This is the fair and reasonable way to give allocations, at least while dealers still exist.

AWESOME insight!!! Do you know if GM has set the combined maximum allocation number for the BW (MY22 and MY23)?

 

[Finally-a-V]

This is my feeling about GM as well after joining this circus.

Um, it's not a circus, it's a goat rodeo

 

[sublime1996525]

For a 4 or 5?

4

I ordered through Jerry Seiner in SLC.. The car came earlier this week and they failed to unload it from the transport truck!

It was Jerry Seiner. When did you order yours? And what do you mean they failed to unload it? I went there on Tuesday because the salesman said they had one just delivered. It was Infrared, beautiful color!

 

[ericwilliamstevenson]

It was Jerry Seiner. When did you order yours? And what do you mean they failed to unload it? I went there on Tuesday because the salesman said they had one just delivered. It was Infrared, beautiful color!

I ordered in August and was there yesterday to pick-up mine which shows as delivered.. But alas, mine was not there, though the infrared one still was.

It's just speculation that it arrived on the truck due to vinView and 5000 status. However, it is possible that the carrier reported it as arrived when it had not.

I expect more info from the dealer in a few hours.

Seiner currently has a 2 year wait as of this morning.

 

[sublime1996525]

I ordered in August and was there yesterday to pick-up mine which shows as delivered.. But alas, mine was not there, though the infrared one still was.

It's just speculation that it arrived on the truck due to vinView and 5000 status. However, it is possible that the carrier reported it as arrived when it had not.

I expect more info from the dealer in a few hours.

Seiner currently has a 2 year wait as of this morning.

Yeah, they told me 15-16 months when I was there on Tuesday. That's insane!