EV Thoughts Thread: cause the old farts did their usual thing

[99sport]

Agree that "science" isn't necessarily unbiased in all cases...but in this case the data seems pretty clear.

Since you claim knowledge of the data, what percentage of annual global CO2 emissions is caused by human activity (aka anthropogenic)?

My guess is you overestimate it by an order of magnitude

The climate was much warmer many times in the past. It was far hotter than even the most dire of current predictions when the dinosaurs lived - probably because of all the gas guzzlers they drove.

Correlation does not equal causation

"Most of the public endorse the climate warnings they have been imbibing steadily yet don’t volunteer to bear significant costs. Those who are easily worked up have become activists. Those inclined to skepticism remain skeptical. The few who inquire deeply know the case against CO2 is plausible but unprovable, and that difficult trade-offs amid uncertainty mock the simple-minded chants of various extremists"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cop28-and-the-climate-fail-carbon-tax-un-summit-dubai-c28ddd40?st=lsro3ne4ebmnz55&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[jbawden]

What we call science today (not in all cases, but in many) has been totally corrupted by money and a desire for political control. Covid response is a delicious example of a totally failed scientific process. The "climate crisis" is again a biased movement that suppresses any discussion contrary to the desired narrative. Many people recognize this bias and therefore reject the hypothesis which makes this discussion unnecessarily divisive and a media that is untrusted. For instance, let's discuss the natural heating and cooling the earth has experienced for millions of years know as glacial and interglacial periods and how this natural phenomenon might be part of this current warming, if there is warming.

Current EV production, useful life, and then end-of-life disposal comes at significant environmental cost. Mandates only compound the net zero benefit because this artificial urgency doesn't allow for a real scientific process of discovery. Additionally, it stifles hybrid technology as an excellent stepping stone to future tech.

 

[Roadhawk]

Not trying to be rude, but you may want to do more research. The issue is that since the 1970s this story has been repeated so many times that pretty much everyone in the general population doesn't question it. The truth is that there are a large number of scientists with the same data that conclude much different hypothesis. I'm not saying they are 100% correct, just that the data is not as clear cut as we are told.

OK got it....but you would agree the data shows rapidly increasing planetary warming since the industrial age - yes? I think we can also see that there has been sea level rise that is continuing and it seems to me (as a laymen) that storms are getting bigger and increasing more rapidly (over warmer ocean areas). And monster tornadoes in the winter....I don't remember those growing up.

Again though, I agree with you that we can't accurately predict the future (maybe its going to be much worse than we can currently imagine....don't know)....but there certainly seem to be many signs (atmospheric CO2, Ocean temps etc) that correlate with some pretty bad stuff (in Earths history). Research should continue (and certainly be questioned, debated, examined etc)....but it seems to me that taking prudent steps to avoid what most current climate scientists seem to believe what were potentially in for is prudent. Wouldn't you agree?

I don't think were going to solve such dilemmas here, I'm certainly no climatologist....and I haven't stayed at any Holiday Inns recently either...so everyone should just enjoy their Caddys...and EVs...and Monster trucks etc...there is certainly enough to worry about in the world...

 

[Roadhawk]

Since you claim knowledge of the data, what percentage of annual global CO2 emissions is caused by human activity (aka anthropogenic)?

My guess is you overestimate it by an order of magnitude

The climate was much warmer many times in the past. It was far hotter than even the most dire of current predictions when the dinosaurs lived - probably because of all the gas guzzlers they drove.

Correlation does not equal causation

"Most of the public endorse the climate warnings they have been imbibing steadily yet don’t volunteer to bear significant costs. Those who are easily worked up have become activists. Those inclined to skepticism remain skeptical. The few who inquire deeply know the case against CO2 is plausible but unprovable, and that difficult trade-offs amid uncertainty mock the simple-minded chants of various extremists"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cop28-and-the-climate-fail-carbon-tax-un-summit-dubai-c28ddd40?st=lsro3ne4ebmnz55&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Don't know...but i would disagree that those who study such and are concerned are off by orders of magnitude. No one is disputing that Earth's climate has varied significantly over the Eons...but we've been here only a very short time and exist in a very favorable climate bubble...lets try to keep it that way.

 

[Roadhawk]

let's discuss the natural heating and cooling the earth has experienced for millions of years know as glacial and interglacial periods and how this natural phenomenon might be part of this current warming, if there is warming.

I'm open to your thoughts on this....just what could be causing the warming?

 

[Jim2000]

I have a hard time trusting any data that has been politicized and global warming and climate change have been politicized. I do remember horrible storms growing up and I am not convinced that storms are getting worse. Although since warmer air can contain more moisture, I certainly agree with areas of the world receiving more rainfall than normal which can have a negative or positive effect on the area. It just depends on how much rainfall is received in a short amount of time. Excess runoff certainly can cause flooding which can be devastating.

 

[565565]

Yeah let's be honest. This is the Blackwing forum, no one here is a real environmentalist.

Even without any environmental benefit these EVs are fun to drive in their own way and in the case of my 110 mile daily commute, saves me like 400 dollars in gas a month given I get free charging at work.

I think global warming is very real but I also think no one is really willing to give up what's near and dear to them to offset it.

I have friends that get mad at polluting gas guzzlers but they go on multiple international vacations a year. Other friends that get mad about plastic straws but buy new clothes each week. People who obsess over recycling but live in a 4000 square foot house for their family of 3.

It's like Bill Gates talking about the importance of carbon emissions while hanging out on his megayacht that burns through more carbon in a day than our cars would in an lifetime.

True reduction in carbon footprint is simple. Don't go anywhere, don't buy any new things, live in the smallest house possible, don't eat anything tasty, don't reproduce. Few people are actually willing to live that way if they can help it.

 

[99sport]

OK got it....but you would agree the data shows rapidly increasing planetary warming since the industrial age - yes? I think we can also see that there has been sea level rise that is continuing and it seems to me (as a laymen) that storms are getting bigger and increasing more rapidly (over warmer ocean areas). And monster tornadoes in the winter....I don't remember those growing up.

Again though, I agree with you that we can't accurately predict the future (maybe its going to be much worse than we can currently imagine....don't know)....but there certainly seem to be many signs (atmospheric CO2, Ocean temps etc) that correlate with some pretty bad stuff (in Earths history). Research should continue (and certainly be questioned, debated, examined etc)....but it seems to me that taking prudent steps to avoid what most current climate scientists seem to believe what were potentially in for is prudent. Wouldn't you agree?

I don't think were going to solve such dilemmas here, I'm certainly no climatologist....and I haven't stayed at any Holiday Inns recently either...so everyone should just enjoy their Caddys...and EVs...and Monster trucks etc...there is certainly enough to worry about in the world...

Everything you listed is a correlation. Again, correlation does not equal causation

Don't know...but i would disagree that those who study such and are concerned are off by orders of magnitude. No one is disputing that Earth's climate has varied significantly over the Eons...but we've been here only a very short time and exist in a very favorable climate bubble...lets try to keep it that way.

You didn't comprehend my question. I never mentioned climate scientists. YOU stated the data are clear. I asked for YOUR understanding of the data since you stated it is clear. I am absolutely certain climate scientists know the answer to this question, although they never give you the number (my number is out of date, but many years ago anthropogenic CO2 emissions was 3% of total - ie 97% comes from natural sources like the ocean and volcanoes)

I'm open to your thoughts on this....just what could be causing the warming?

Why was the earth warmer hundreds of times in the past? Again, when the dinosaurs were alive most of the planet had "tropical" temps. There are dozens of other examples - these are provable facts. In none of these cases was it due to human burning of fossil fuels. Could it be due to a small change in the 97% of emissions that are from non-human sources? Seems plausible to me.


Not to beat up on you personally, but my main point that correlation is not the same as causation is the crux of this matter. Humans COULD be the cause - it is plausible - but it has not and cannot be proven. Nor can it be stated that any single weather event was caused by human caused climate change. A decade or two ago, the media asserted as fact that humans caused climate change, but there was always the disclaimer that no single weather event can be attributed to that change. Now reports explicitly claim the link between the latest weather event and human activity - as if every cold spell and hurricane is the result of my reckless drive to work yesterday.

If you get nothing else from this post, try to take to heart that correlation is not the same as causation. Here is a famous example from medicine: Observational studies identify correlation. In medicine, they are followed up with randomized controlled trials because those studies show causation. It is entirely possible the two show different results - ie the correlation suggested a treatment improves health, but actually cause higher mortality when cause and effect are studied.

"Observational studies in humans and experimental studies in animals and isolated cells supported the widely held belief that hormone replacement therapy protects the cardiovascular system from disease. To nearly everyone’s astonishment, the Women’s Health Initiative Study and the Heart and Estrogen/Progestin Replacement Study overturned the conclusion that hormone replacement therapy protects the cardiovascular system and, in fact, supported the opposite view that such therapy may actually increase the risk of cardiovascular disease"

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/01.HYP.0000145988.95551.28

 

[shbox]

I'm open to your thoughts on this....just what could be causing the warming?

Politically driven science has told us it is cattle farts.

 

[1Evil55]

Yeah let's be honest. This is the Blackwing forum, no one here is a real environmentalist.

Even without any environmental benefit these EVs are fun to drive in their own way and in the case of my 110 mile daily commute, saves me like 400 dollars in gas a month given I get free charging at work.

I think global warming is very real but I also think no one is really willing to give up what's near and dear to them to offset it.

I have friends that get mad at polluting gas guzzlers but they go on multiple international vacations a year. Other friends that get mad about plastic straws but buy new clothes each week. People who obsess over recycling but live in a 4000 square foot house for their family of 3.

It's like Bill Gates talking about the importance of carbon emissions while hanging out on his megayacht that burns through more carbon in a day than our cars would in an lifetime.

True reduction in carbon footprint is simple. Don't go anywhere, don't buy any new things, live in the smallest house possible, don't eat anything tasty, don't reproduce. Few people are actually willing to live that way if they can help it.

Like gun control. Lets see them walk the walk before they talk the talk.

 

[Roadhawk]

OK 99sport - you win. I still disagree...and while I'm entirely open to suggestion that their are other causes of warming (all those volcanoes etc)...somehow I think it has more than a little to do with us.

OK I get it - correlation is not causation...but the correlation is certainly their and its not as though we are benign...I'd be interested in some historical record of rapid climate change that didn't have some very clear and overwhelming natural environmental causation that I fail to see in this case (and am open to some proposed examples).

Again were not going to solve anything here. I appreciate your contributions (and your point about correlation vs causation) but I'm still inclined to see some things differently.

 

[Roadhawk]

I am absolutely certain climate scientists know the answer to this question, although they never give you the number (my number is out of date, but many years ago anthropogenic CO2 emissions was 3% of total - ie 97% comes from natural sources like the ocean and volcanoes)

OK - are these the same climate scientists who are concerned about human caused global warming or are these folks who don't think its a problem?

Lets say these numbers are accurate - that 97% of CO2 emissions are from natural causes and humans are only contributing 3% of the total (I have no idea if this is true...but lets assume that it is)...does this mean that we are in some natural state where CO2 emissions (from the earth) are out of control and this is what is causing the rapid increase in global temps? Are scientists saying this?

Or - perhaps thjs level of natural CO2 production is more or less what keeps the world in its current balance and maybe we will warm or cool over time (or whatever) but the additional 3% humans are creating is just enough to tip us over into crisis and rapid warming. Don't know if this is true but if so - well Houston we (still) have a problem...(If you accept that the planet being even incrementally warmer than it is now is something of concern)

 

[rubberduck]

Lets say these numbers are accurate - that 97% of CO2 emissions are from natural causes and humans are only contributing 3% of the total (I have no idea if this is true...but lets assume that it is)...does this mean that we are in some natural state where CO2 emissions (from the earth) are out of control and this is what is causing the rapid increase in global temps? Are scientists saying this?

It's the premise of widespread global temperature increase is also fact. At one time I did research on this and the issue is the time scale used to classify these "global rises." There were periods in the early 19th or 20th century (before widespread industrialization) where it also appeared that global temperatures were rising and they later subsided.

This isn't a very sexy subject to spend hundreds of hours researching, so few people do. My father spent a good amount of time after he retired compiling scientific papers. I will say that if one is willing to put in 50 to 100 hours reading a spectrum of research papers, what they find might blow them away.

 

[Finally-a-V]

Just getting up to speed on this thread. I was about 4 pages behind. Here's what I know. Like I said before, we should have started with hybrids. Fine tune them, get them to 75-100 miles range. Then work our way into EV's. How can we go full EV without infrastructure? We're no where close and many of them are broken, etc. And how green IS your EV? Where is your power coming from and how is it generated? We also need to decide how to tax them since they aren't paying gas tax.

What happens if we continue down this EV road and every (most?) car manufacturers are losing $20-30K per car? When do they go bankrupt or ask for Fed help? Then what?

Here's what I learned with all my accounting classes. Like the old saying, "figures don't lie, liars figure". People, companies, politicians can and do manipulate anything and everything to get the end result they want. Do your own research and from more than ONE source. Read, watch, listen and decide for yourself.

Lastly, @Neveready ...that clip from Blazing Saddles absolutely sums up this Nation. Sadly, we are a nation of morons. Just look and listen around you. We're crazy, we're so violent, we're out of our minds. I have my personal opinions of why and how we got here, but we won't go there.

OK, drinks for all!

 

[Jim2000]

Just getting up to speed on this thread. I was about 4 pages behind. Here's what I know. Like I said before, we should have started with hybrids. Fine tune them, get them to 75-100 miles range. Then work our way into EV's. How can we go full EV without infrastructure? We're no where close and many of them are broken, etc. And how green IS your EV? Where is your power coming from and how is it generated? We also need to decide how to tax them since they aren't paying gas tax.

What happens if we continue down this EV road and every (most?) car manufacturers are losing $20-30K per car? When do they go bankrupt or ask for Fed help? Then what?

Here's what I learned with all my accounting classes. Like the old saying, "figures don't lie, liars figure". People, companies, politicians can and do manipulate anything and everything to get the end result they want. Do your own research and from more than ONE source. Read, watch, listen and decide for yourself.

Lastly, @Neveready ...that clip from Blazing Saddles absolutely sums up this Nation. Sadly, we are a nation of morons. Just look and listen around you. We're crazy, we're so violent, we're out of our minds. I have my personal opinions of why and how we got here, but we won't go there.

OK, drinks for all!

You make a lot of great points. I just wish that most Americans would not just read the titles of various articles, but instead would read the entire article and read information on the topic from multiple sources. Also, it is unfortunate that our educational system does not emphasize critical thinking skills and forming one's own opinion.

 

[DCV]

Your statement is inaccurate. There is not overwhelming data about rising global temps with correlation to human industrial activity. The problem is that science is no longer unbiased. Many studies are funded with a political agenda.

There is plenty of data in tree rings and ice cores that show an increase in the levels of CO2 with the rise of the Industrial Revolution. Other factors too. What else can cause the increase then in such a short time if you don’t believe me? It’s warmer all over, easy to see. Seriously give me an scientific answer.

 

[T.O.Blackwing]

Your statement is inaccurate. There is not overwhelming data about rising global temps with correlation to human industrial activity.

Um, no.
Lots of things are debatable, including the scope of the impact, its politicization, and what ought to be done and how and when it ought to be done.
Respectfully, however, on the climate front we’re as guilty as OJ was on the charges against him.
It’s probably not murder on us as a society - at least not yet - but the gloves do fit, and the data in support of that is overwhelming.
Which is why pretty much every country on earth, regardless of how socialistic or libertarian, authoritarian or democratic, is following the science, following the data, even self-interested Gulf states, and are at least playing lip service to the goal of reducing carbon emissions and in some cases are doing much more.
Now excuse me while I go warm up my car; it’s been damn cold up here the last few weeks!

 

[Jim2000]

Um, no.
Lots of things are debatable, including the scope of the impact, its politicization, and what ought to be done and how and when it ought to be done.
Respectfully, however, on the climate front we’re as guilty as OJ was on the charges against him.
It’s probably not murder on us as a society - at least not yet - but the gloves do fit, and the data in support of that is overwhelming.
Which is why pretty much every country on earth, regardless of how socialistic or libertarian, authoritarian or democratic, is following the science, following the data, even self-interested Gulf states, and are at least playing lip service to the goal of reducing carbon emissions and in some cases are doing much more.
Now excuse me while I go warm up my car; it’s been damn cold up here the last few weeks!

The science is flawed because of politics. The politics have driven the data. There are many reports proving that. It is a shame that science is no longer unbiased. Scientific research is now directed to give a certain outcome based on a certain political agenda. If they refuse, then the study's funding is pulled. There is a lot of evidence to support this.

 

[raptor5244]

Time for some George Carlin in this thread.

 

[rubberduck]

Time for some George Carlin in this thread.

That pretty much sums up the big picture. Hopefully the next species will have Blackwings, they’re too much fun to miss out.