Now you want 1.5:1 odds in your favor. I do feel good after many of my election predictions turned out correct, but I also want a fair deal. I’ll take the odds, but I going to charge you a 25% tariff.Give me odds by making me pay in Canadian if I’m wrong, which isn’t so bad for you because if I’m wrong, the Canadian dollar will go up.
That is funny.
Tariffs aside, if GM is killing the XT models, then the CTs are not long for this world. They're a fraction of XT sales.
The components can cross the border multiple times before being a final assembly component?All bets that there will be an ‘26 are off with the tariffs being implemented on Tuesday.
All cars built in North America contain numerous parts and raw materials (steel, aluminum, oil and petroleum products) that have crossed either or both the Mexican and Canadian border before they are assembled into a vehicle.
Some of the parts cross several times during the production process.
E.g., the Bullitt I owned before my first Blackwing was assembled in Michigan but its engine came from Canada, as many Ford engines have for more than half a century.
That engine no doubt itself contained parts from the US, not to mention the rest of the world.
The LSA engine in the V Wagon I owned before the Mustang had an engine that was assembled in Mexico which similarly very likely contained components that originated in the US as well as many other parts of the world.
That whole integrated long-standing production industry will now require reorganization, retrenchment, and mitigation of costs and losses unless an exception is made for cars and car parts. (For those that don’t know: there has been free trade in the auto sector between Canada and the US since the sixties, so the connections are deep, long-standing, and complex.)
Without such an exception, which I’m becoming less hopeful about every time your president speaks about the issue, I believe that we will soon see factories closing, huge layoffs on both sides of the two borders, and the discontinuation of numerous models of cars as part of the retrenchment.
I expect this will include all the CT5s as they can’t be making GM much money given their low sales volumes.
In other words, and I hope I’m wrong, it’s over after the ‘25, and they may even cut production of that model year short.
There’s one good thing that may come out of all this: some leading politicians here are advocating for a 100% retaliatory tariff on Teslas that are shipped to Canada.
Please God make it so!
Back and forth six times or more:
www.wsj.com
The danger is that he wants to raise tariffs by enormous 19th century amounts to raise money for a tax cut, which is economically stupid. But this way to raise revenue is a bizarre obsession of Trump's, and I think he doesn't want to come right out and say it because tax cuts for the rich doesn't play to his base.
Back and forth six times or more:
Take the U.S. auto industry, which is really a North American industry because supply chains in the three countries are highly integrated. In 2024 Canada supplied almost 13% of U.S. imports of auto parts and Mexico nearly 42%. Industry experts say a vehicle made on the continent goes back and forth across borders a half dozen times or more, as companies source components and add value in the most cost-effective ways.
And everyone benefits. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative says that in 2023 the industry added more than $809 billion to the U.S. economy, or about 11.2% of total U.S. manufacturing output, supporting “9.7 million direct and indirect U.S. jobs.” In 2022 the U.S. exported $75.4 billion in vehicles and parts to Canada and Mexico. That number jumped 14% in 2023 to $86.2 billion, according to the American Automotive Policy Council.
American car makers would be much less competitive without this trade.
Opinion | The Dumbest Trade War in History
Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.
apple.news
So, it was exactly as I said, the tariff threat worked, we reached a deal and they're no suspended
Mexico only, even though there is no issue at the Canadian border.So, it was exactly as I said, the tariff threat worked, we reached a deal and they're no suspended
Trump Tariffs Live Updates: Mexico Says It Reached Deal to Delay Tariffs
President Trump said he would pause tariffs on Mexico for a month, but levies on Canada and China were still set to take effect on Tuesday. U.S. shares fell at the opening bell, following drops in Asian and European markets, amid fears of a trade war.www.nytimes.com
Thanks for this post.
Actually we do. I only base my opinion on a BIL state trooper in a NE state that works only the highway from a Canadian entrance. Not a week to pass that he isn't intercepting meth and fentanyl in large supply.
I have a hard time believing what your brother-in-law says. I live 15 minutes from one border crossing and 25 minutes from the next border crossing. I am friends with people who work at the customs buildings, and know a lot of local troopers. None of them ever mentioned what you just said. The biggest issue we have is that the border between the US and Canada, about 1 hour north of me, is a land border and it is all on the native reservation. Therefore, it can't really be monitored in a meaningful way.
