Is the EV push too fast and too furious? Ford projects $4.5B in loses for EVs in 2023

raptor5244 · Jul 28, 2023

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/mon...es-for-evs-in-2023/vi-AA1esmAp?ocid=hpmsd&t=1

rubberduck · Jul 28, 2023

I’m sure the government will give them some billions in handouts to help them out. The infrastructure bill has $7.5B for charging stations and $7B for battery development.

BlueBird · Jul 28, 2023

Everyone is going to be losing money for a while initially. I think most companies would understand that as a fact of the switch to EV's. What they do to handle the losses in the meanwhile should be the interesting part. Are they going to start assembly line layoffs and replace engineers with AI or automation? I think Volvo may be able to turn a profit on EV's pretty quickly, especially with the upcoming EX30 which has low cost construction and no-frills accessories to reduce manufacturing cost. Plus they are built in China, so there's that. Should have a pretty good profit margin while allowing consumers a good EV entry point.

Head Hunter · Jul 28, 2023

rubberduck said:
I’m sure the government will give them some billions in handouts to help them out. The infrastructure bill has $7.5B for charging stations and $7B for battery development.

Any money in there for building a dozen nuclear power plants to supply the demand that a country full of EV's will create? Heck, Texas and California can't handle the current demand as is with 90% of their cars still gas/diesel powered.

rubberduck · Jul 28, 2023

Head Hunter said:
Any money in there for building a dozen nuclear power plants to supply the demand that a country full of EV's will create? Heck, Texas and California can't handle the current demand as is with 90% of their cars still gas/diesel powered.

They will be powered by solar and farts.

1Evil55 · Jul 28, 2023

rubberduck said:
They will be powered by solar and farts.

And engineered by unicorns.
F electric cars.

BlueBird · Jul 28, 2023

1Evil55 said:
And engineered by unicorns.
F electric cars.

I'd love to hear everyone share their alternatives. People probably said the same about the switch from horses to petrol cars. I don't claim to have any answers, but we can't possibly go on burning dead dinos and spewing filth into the air indefinitely. I am in no way ignorant to the 10 tons of CO2 my BW adds to the atmosphere annually and won't pretend that I'd breathe it all in willingly. Maintaining the status quo while hoping for a miracle will surely play out in our favor, right?

Head Hunter · Jul 28, 2023

BlueBird said:
I'd love to hear everyone share their alternatives. People probably said the same about the switch from horses to petrol cars. I don't claim to have any answers, but we can't possibly go on burning dead dinos and spewing filth into the air indefinitely. I am in no way ignorant to the 10 tons of CO2 my BW adds to the atmosphere annually and won't pretend that I'd breathe it all in willingly. Maintaining the status quo while hoping for a miracle will surely play out in our favor, right?

Keeping this non-political for Rob's sake.

Do you know what goes into the mining / creation of the batteries that power EVs? Or how they're recharged? Or where they end up after their life cycle is over? What's the combined GHG damage from those parts of the EV Life that nobody likes to discuss?

Are those things combined still less than a normal ICE vehicle? If you go from the current 1% of vehicles in the US are EV to even 50%, do you think that Wind/Solar can reliably keep up with that and remain the 2nd highest producer of electricity on our grid? If not, are you going to open Nuclear? Coal? Gas? What about the wear and tear on our infrastructure from the increased weight and the environmental cost of the decreased life cycle between repairs? What about the Environmental Cost to rebuild/reinforce every parking garage ever built so we don't see more collapses like the one in NY?

Am I against EV? Absolutely not - however I am against governmental interference in capitalism and consumer choice. If the demand is there for EV, great - let the market determine its popularity. But forcing ICE to an early grave in exchange for increased child labor and continued destruction of the earth's natural non-renewable resources all on the campaign of "climate change" despite science shows that we are nowhere near the peak number of days "hotter than usual" that we saw in the 1930s is what kills me.

And at the end of the day, does it really matter what we do in the US if China's going the opposite direction? From 2010 to 2021 we decreased our CO2 emissions by ~10% while they increased by nearly 30%

/rant

BlueBird · Jul 28, 2023

Those are all great points, and I agree with much of your statement.

Our energy infrastructure needs a kick in the pants no matter if we move to EV's or not. Cars are all (EV or not) bigger and heavier than they were and cause more wear so our roads need an update as well.

As far as power is concerned, it's easier to regulate and capture CO2 at the power plant versus individually for the millions (billions?) of vehicles on the road and personally i think we need to do more research into nuclear since technology has advanced over the years.

Solid state batteries will reduce/eliminate lithium requirements and manufacturers are already reducing cobalt, but there are a lot of human rights abuses happening to get the materials. Having said that, an article was just released stating that a major "leather seat maker for GM, Ford, Toyota, Ram and BMW is suspected of using slave labor and benefitting from the deforestation of the Amazon." It's not just batteries that have rights issues. iPhones, computers, steel, you name it. all the modern luxuries built on the backs of the poor and vulnerable.

Batteries do not completely lose capacity when they "expire", and companies like BMW and Nissan send old battery packs to powerplants to be used as energy storage. Not to mention that batteries are recyclable, so once the materials are in the US from the Congo or wherever, you can keep them here and reduce the need for new material. Volvo and Polestar label all their aluminum and other parts of their new EV's to assist with maximizing recycling. They are also very upfront about the CO2 lifetime emissions from manufacturing and vehicle usage. Other manufacturers should take note.

Other countries will need to play a part as well because India and China can't be cranking out more pollutants while we reduce ours. I am hoping for carbon capture/carbon neutral e-fuel to get rolling for current combustion engines to continue use, but that may be a long way off.

Meanwhile, even though the problem is complicated and multi-faceted, I don't think that we should just sit on our hands and do nothing. Electrification may not be the right choice (time will tell) but at least it's an attempt. If left entirely to consumers the corporations will do whatever nets them the most profit, regardless of the environmental impact, so without some type of push from the government I doubt we'd get anywhere. Good discourse

.

1Evil55 · Jul 28, 2023

BlueBird said:
I'd love to hear everyone share their alternatives. People probably said the same about the switch from horses to petrol cars. I don't claim to have any answers, but we can't possibly go on burning dead dinos and spewing filth into the air indefinitely. I am in no way ignorant to the 10 tons of CO2 my BW adds to the atmosphere annually and won't pretend that I'd breathe it all in willingly. Maintaining the status quo while hoping for a miracle will surely play out in our favor, right?

I'd say with all the regulation they've put on mileage claims, we are doing a big part. If I were in charge I'd be looking at the countries that are actually polluting the planet. Forcing us all into EV everything isn't going to over well with a majority. Never mind the thought that electricity producing plants would even be able to keep up with demand. How do they make their energy again?

BlueBird · Jul 28, 2023

All good points. Air travel and air commerce are also major contributors to CO2 so ideally it would be nice to have alternatives. We don't have a truly viable rail system and most major cities lack public transport infrastructure that would help those who cannot afford cars or EV's to get around. When I lived in Europe I would drive to a city center, park, and then walk everywhere or take the rail system. I can't even walk across the street in some places here because the roads aren't designed for a person to cross them. A sudden embrace of public transport is not likely to happen though, and I am liable to drive everywhere because the current state of air travel sucks.

FLYARMY · Jul 28, 2023

I drove cross country last year and saw alot of wind turbines. 75% of them weren't even turning.

raptor5244 · Jul 29, 2023

Head Hunter said:
Keeping this non-political for Rob's sake.

Do you know what goes into the mining / creation of the batteries that power EVs? Or how they're recharged? Or where they end up after their life cycle is over? What's the combined GHG damage from those parts of the EV Life that nobody likes to discuss?

Are those things combined still less than a normal ICE vehicle? If you go from the current 1% of vehicles in the US are EV to even 50%, do you think that Wind/Solar can reliably keep up with that and remain the 2nd highest producer of electricity on our grid? If not, are you going to open Nuclear? Coal? Gas? What about the wear and tear on our infrastructure from the increased weight and the environmental cost of the decreased life cycle between repairs? What about the Environmental Cost to rebuild/reinforce every parking garage ever built so we don't see more collapses like the one in NY?

Am I against EV? Absolutely not - however I am against governmental interference in capitalism and consumer choice. If the demand is there for EV, great - let the market determine its popularity. But forcing ICE to an early grave in exchange for increased child labor and continued destruction of the earth's natural non-renewable resources all on the campaign of "climate change" despite science shows that we are nowhere near the peak number of days "hotter than usual" that we saw in the 1930s is what kills me.

And at the end of the day, does it really matter what we do in the US if China's going the opposite direction? From 2010 to 2021 we decreased our CO2 emissions by ~10% while they increased by nearly 30%

/rant

Well said, I feel the same. I am still surprised companies like GM are going "all in" on EVs so quickly. It just seems like a dumb business move when 93% of the market still drives ICE based vehicles. I get that it will cost too much to run both EV and ICE based assembly lines but as you mentioned, the power grid can't support a quick transition to EVs even if we wanted to. This is supposed to be a slow transition to EV as the battery technology evolves and the power grid is upgraded but all we keep hearing is upcoming models are all EV.

Trying to catch Tesla will be tough due to the huge advantage they have in their software development. All of the traditional automakers are just now hiring the required software folks to develop the new UIs and OTA updates required for EVs.

BlueBird · Jul 29, 2023

raptor5244 said:
Well said, I feel the same. I am still surprised companies like GM are going "all in" on EVs so quickly. It just seems like a dumb business move when 93% of the market still drives ICE based vehicles. I get that it will cost too much to run both EV and ICE based assembly lines but as you mentioned, the power grid can't support a quick transition to EVs even if we wanted to. This is supposed to be a slow transition to EV as the battery technology evolves and the power grid is upgraded but all we keep hearing is upcoming models are all EV.

Trying to catch Tesla will be tough due to the huge advantage they have in their software development. All of the traditional automakers are just now hiring the required software folks to develop the new UIs and OTA updates required for EVs.

We've been told (at the dealership level) that GM is pumping the brakes on an all EV Cadillac lineup. The plan at the moment is to have ICE and EV products available side-by-side for a number of years. They still plan to develop charging networks, improve the facilities, and offer compelling EV's but continue to develop and improve the ICE offerings as well.

raptor5244 · Jul 29, 2023

BlueBird said:
We've been told (at the dealership level) that GM is pumping the brakes on an all EV Cadillac lineup. The plan at the moment is to have ICE and EV products available side-by-side for a number of years. They still plan to develop charging networks, improve the facilities, and offer compelling EV's but continue to develop and improve the ICE offerings as well.

This is actually encouraging news and makes more sense. You can't transition a traditional car company from ICE to EV overnight. They should build what customers want to buy and let the market determine the pace of change.

Neveready · Jul 29, 2023

No One In The U.S. Really Wants To Buy Electric Vehicles

EVs from Toyota, Ford, Audi and Genesis are just sitting on dealer lots as supply outgrows demand.

jalopnik.com

I think the solid state battery is game changer, but it's 5 to 10 years away depending on the manufacturer.

FLYARMY · Jul 30, 2023

Tyler from "Hoovies Garage", bought an electric F-150 with a partner. They spent $90k and planned on flipping it in 6 months after purchase to make a few thousand bucks , since they were so hard to get back then. He kept it a few months and got rid of it because it was a piece of crap. It could not hold a charge and get anywhere near the mileage advertised. Especially in the cold with a trailered load. He was carrying an aluminum trailer with a Model A Ford and barely got 90 miles of range. Ford hates him for speaking the truth about their EV truck and they won't play nice with him anymore.

rubberduck · Jul 30, 2023

It’s no secret, Motor Trend did a towing review of the Lightning a year ago. Less than 100 miles range with a camper trailer.

Tow No! The Ford F-150 Lightning Struggled in Our Towing Test

We towed 3100-, 5300-, and 7200-pound travel trailers with Ford’s electric truck and didn’t get very far from home.

www.motortrend.com

bloominguez · Aug 2, 2023

raptor5244 said:
This is actually encouraging news and makes more sense. You can't transition a traditional car company from ICE to EV overnight. They should build what customers want to buy and let the market determine the pace of change.

It may make more sense than mindlessly continuing down the "we're going to be all EV by __{pick a date}__" path. But it doesn't make good sense in the big picture, it's just a course correction from a bad decision earlier. It shows that GM is continuing to show great followship in this area. Way to go, GM!!

One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes is: "Predicting the rain doesn't count; building arks does." Small credit to GM, I suppose, but don't pat them on the back too hard for seeing something only after it's blindingly obvious. A true leader would have seen farther. Toyota got criticized for not having enough EVs, focusing instead on hybrids and plug-in hybrids--in other words, bucking the trendy path other companies took. They are doing a better job designing what people want, going for that transition you're talking about. I think they're on the right track, and in far better shape than GM as a result.

raptor5244 · Aug 2, 2023

bloominguez said:
It may make more sense than mindlessly continuing down the "we're going to be all EV by __{pick a date}__" path. But it doesn't make good sense in the big picture, it's just a course correction from a bad decision earlier. It shows that GM is continuing to show great followship in this area. Way to go, GM!!

One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes is: "Predicting the rain doesn't count; building arks does." Small credit to GM, I suppose, but don't pat them on the back too hard for seeing something only after it's blindingly obvious. A true leader would have seen farther. Toyota got criticized for not having enough EVs, focusing instead on hybrids and plug-in hybrids--in other words, bucking the trendy path other companies took. They are doing a better job designing what people want, going for that transition you're talking about. I think they're on the right track, and in far better shape than GM as a result.

Indeed. I think a lot of executives were just envious of Tesla's stock valuation and decided we have to go all in on EVs or there is some political motivation at work that I don't fully understand.

I have owned an EV for the past 4 years but I knew exactly what I was getting into and it works great for us. I am a target customer though. Own a home with a garage and enough electrical service to add a 60amp breaker and charge at a fast rate. That said, many live in apartments or homes that require upgrades to the electrical service to support adding a 50/60amp circuit. If I couldn't charge at home then an EV is a non-starter.

As for Toyota, I was thinking all along, they are going about it much smarter. Hybrids, even though I don't care for them, are actually a better solution for for most people. You use smaller battery that covers cover the 50 miles or less that people drive per day on average and you have the ICE solve the charging and long distance driving concerns. You get 90% of the benefit but you add some complexity in the process but so what.